Model line
Illinois −12.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 91%
Projected tempo
70.6
possessions
Site
Illinois home
9%Win probability91%
The model makes Illinois a 12.7-point favorite, winning about 91 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Wisconsin offense vs Illinois defense
| Wisconsin O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0#151 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 54.5#54 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 12.8#4 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 29.1#234 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 31.5#268 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 12.5#349 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 57.3#67 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 54.7#66 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 36.2#51 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 78.8#8 | FT% | — |
| 52.1#6 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Illinois offense vs Wisconsin defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Wisconsin D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #15169.0 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #18351.4 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #32814.3 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #7828.2 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #5629.8 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #2228.6 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #14150.8 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #21252.2 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #15033.4 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #14340.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Wisconsin
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | High Point61 | L 82–83 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Michigan24 | L 65–68 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Illinois7 | W 91–88 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Washington78 | W 85–82 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Purdue29 | W 97–93 |
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
