Model line
Wisconsin −6.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Wisconsin 75%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Wisconsin home
25%Win probability75%
The model makes Wisconsin a 6.3-point favorite, winning about 75 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan offense vs Wisconsin defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Wisconsin D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #15169.0 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #18351.4 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #32814.3 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #7828.2 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #5629.8 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #2228.6 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #14150.8 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #21252.2 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #15033.4 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #14340.6 |
Wisconsin offense vs Michigan defense
| Wisconsin O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0#151 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 54.5#54 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 12.8#4 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 29.1#234 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 31.5#268 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 12.5#349 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 57.3#67 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 54.7#66 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 36.2#51 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 78.8#8 | FT% | — |
| 52.1#6 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
Wisconsin
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | High Point61 | L 82–83 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Michigan24 | L 65–68 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Illinois7 | W 91–88 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Washington78 | W 85–82 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Purdue29 | W 97–93 |
