Model line
Kentucky −39.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky >99%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Kentucky home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Kentucky a 39.4-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Manhattan offense vs Kentucky defense
| Manhattan O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.1#196 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 47.9#315 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 15.6#112 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 28.6#245 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 34.0#209 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 10.7#284 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 49.6#252 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 47.8#314 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 32.0#279 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 79.6#3 | FT% | — |
| 37.1#229 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Kentucky offense vs Manhattan defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Manhattan D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #19668.1 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #29653.9 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #17416.7 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #35837.0 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #1025.7 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #3465.9 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #35161.5 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #24753.3 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #33236.6 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #23338.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Manhattan
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Fairfield231 | L 60–71 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Iona222 | L 65–69 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | A | Saint Peter's298 | L 65–75 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Marist257 | L 70–84 |
| Sun, Feb 15 | A | Canisius339 | W 69–65 |
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
