Model line
Indiana −2.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Indiana 62%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Indiana home
38%Win probability62%
The model makes Indiana a 2.8-point favorite, winning about 62 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan St. offense vs Indiana defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Indiana D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #26266.6 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #6649.0 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #27815.1 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #12429.3 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #23837.0 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #2957.4 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #8649.0 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #5348.6 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #12633.1 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #26736.8 |
Indiana offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Indiana O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.6#262 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 56.1#22 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 15.1#69 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 26.9#302 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 35.0#180 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 10.1#246 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 62.5#13 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 60.3#7 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 34.7#138 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 78.0#18 | FT% | — |
| 50.5#14 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
Indiana
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Northwestern85 | L 61–74 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Ohio St.26 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Minnesota63 | W 77–47 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Michigan St.9 | L 64–77 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Northwestern85 | L 68–72 |
