Model line
Indiana −2.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Indiana 60%
Projected tempo
69.9
possessions
Site
Indiana home
40%Win probability60%
The model makes Indiana a 2.5-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Indiana defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Indiana D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #26266.6 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #6649.0 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #27815.1 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #12429.3 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #23837.0 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #2957.4 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #8649.0 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #5348.6 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #12633.1 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #26736.8 |
Indiana offense vs Illinois defense
| Indiana O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.6#262 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 56.1#22 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 15.1#69 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 26.9#302 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 35.0#180 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 10.1#246 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 62.5#13 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 60.3#7 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 34.7#138 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 78.0#18 | FT% | — |
| 50.5#14 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Indiana
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Northwestern85 | L 61–74 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Ohio St.26 | L 78–91 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Minnesota63 | W 77–47 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Michigan St.9 | L 64–77 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Northwestern85 | L 68–72 |
