Model line
Villanova −4.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Villanova 68%
Projected tempo
70.6
possessions
Site
Villanova home
32%Win probability68%
The model makes Villanova a 4.4-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan offense vs Villanova defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Villanova D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #27666.5 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #18151.4 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #6918.6 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #25031.8 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #5930.0 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #3475.9 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #23354.2 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #21152.2 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #14933.4 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #27036.8 |
Villanova offense vs Michigan defense
| Villanova O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#276 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 53.8#76 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 15.0#67 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 32.2#119 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 30.9#284 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 7.3#23 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 56.8#73 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 54.0#87 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 35.7#78 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 68.9#303 | FT% | — |
| 45.7#54 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
Villanova
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Notre Dame72 | L 72–74 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Utah St.56 | L 76–86 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Georgetown65 | L 64–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Xavier45 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | DePaul62 | W 76–57 |
