Model line
UCF −10.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UCF 87%
Projected tempo
72.0
possessions
Site
UCF home
13%Win probability87%
The model makes UCF a 10.8-point favorite, winning about 87 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Mississippi St. offense vs UCF defense
| Mississippi St. O | Stat | UCF D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5#32 | Tempo | #7570.6 |
| 51.5#172 | eFG% | #22152.1 |
| 16.1#146 | TOV% | #24215.7 |
| 29.8#209 | ORB% | #9728.8 |
| 30.7#288 | FT rate | #17734.9 |
| 11.0#303 | Block% | #2578.1 |
| 45.1#333 | Assist% | #14651.0 |
| 53.4#110 | 2P% | #23752.9 |
| 32.4#261 | 3P% | #17933.9 |
| 66.0#353 | FT% | — |
| 40.1#168 | 3PA rate | #18839.4 |
UCF offense vs Mississippi St. defense
| UCF O | Stat | Mississippi St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#75 | Tempo | #3271.5 |
| 52.6#124 | eFG% | #15250.9 |
| 16.0#143 | TOV% | #36112.8 |
| 35.0#48 | ORB% | #18930.7 |
| 30.5#299 | FT rate | #11232.3 |
| 9.4#181 | Block% | #8511.1 |
| 53.7#144 | Assist% | #17252.1 |
| 51.7#185 | 2P% | #14051.0 |
| 36.2#50 | 3P% | #17533.9 |
| 72.9#173 | FT% | — |
| 34.8#280 | 3PA rate | #18239.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Mississippi St.
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Auburn27 | L 61–79 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Georgia40 | L 96–102 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Florida2 | L 74–108 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Missouri34 | L 64–88 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Alabama16 | L 75–100 |
UCF
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | UCLA18 | L 71–75 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Arizona5 | L 59–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Cincinnati30 | W 66–65 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | West Virginia51 | L 62–77 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Oklahoma St.52 | L 104–111 |
