Model line
Michigan St. −25.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. >99%
Projected tempo
70.8
possessions
Site
Michigan St. home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Michigan St. a 25.2-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Penn offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Penn O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#160 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 50.4#220 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 15.3#89 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 30.0#201 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 33.9#214 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 9.3#166 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 52.3#186 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 46.5#341 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 38.3#15 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 69.4#288 | FT% | — |
| 35.4#265 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Penn defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Penn D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #16068.8 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #22052.1 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #13117.3 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #21631.3 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #2627.5 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #2318.5 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #20753.2 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #29754.5 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #7332.2 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #17239.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Penn
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Illinois7 | L 70–105 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Yale145 | W 88–84 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Harvard135 | W 62–60 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | Brown229 | W 82–61 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Harvard135 | W 64–61 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
