Model line
Wagner −3.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Wagner 64%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Wagner home
36%Win probability64%
The model makes Wagner a 3.3-point favorite, winning about 64 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
UMBC offense vs Wagner defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Wagner D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #32465.3 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #12450.4 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #30014.9 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #14229.6 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #31040.8 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #3296.5 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #22954.1 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #9749.9 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #20534.3 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #29835.8 |
Wagner offense vs UMBC defense
| Wagner O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#324 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 49.6#262 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 18.5#301 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 32.8#95 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 32.3#254 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 10.4#270 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 48.9#269 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 46.6#339 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 36.6#38 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 72.6#185 | FT% | — |
| 36.1#247 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
Wagner
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | LIU262 | L 56–64 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Central Connecticut334 | W 70–60 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Chicago St.347 | W 80–61 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | New Haven351 | W 65–62 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | St. Francis PA | W 65–56 |
