Model line
UMBC −10.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UMBC 86%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
UMBC home
14%Win probability86%
The model makes UMBC a 10.2-point favorite, winning about 86 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Bucknell offense vs UMBC defense
| Bucknell O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.9#248 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 48.5#302 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 19.0#320 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 27.0#294 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 29.8#315 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 11.5#326 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 54.0#138 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 50.4#243 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 30.6#329 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 76.8#36 | FT% | — |
| 42.7#122 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
UMBC offense vs Bucknell defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Bucknell D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #24866.9 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #32054.7 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #10217.9 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #21431.3 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #18635.3 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #3455.9 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #35261.8 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #28054.1 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #34437.0 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #2445.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Bucknell
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Navy290 | L 69–74 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Army346 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Lehigh265 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Army346 | W 75–73 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | H | Holy Cross353 | L 63–72 |
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
