Model line
UMBC −11.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UMBC 88%
Projected tempo
72.0
possessions
Site
UMBC home
12%Win probability88%
The model makes UMBC a 11.2-point favorite, winning about 88 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Morgan St. offense vs UMBC defense
| Morgan St. O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.7#66 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 45.8#351 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 17.8#261 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 30.7#173 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 42.7#23 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 10.4#268 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 52.2#189 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 44.9#355 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 31.7#297 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 74.3#113 | FT% | — |
| 35.2#272 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
UMBC offense vs Morgan St. defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Morgan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #6670.7 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #19651.7 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #18716.5 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #34335.2 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #36350.9 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #2298.5 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #29256.4 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #26253.7 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #4831.5 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #35531.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Morgan St.
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Delaware St.361 | L 70–75 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | Coppin St.362 | W 70–66 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Norfolk St.297 | W 90–84 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Howard164 | L 59–84 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | South Carolina St.356 | W 90–83 |
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
