Model line
Marist −7.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Marist 78%
Projected tempo
70.1
possessions
Site
Marist home
22%Win probability78%
The model makes Marist a 7.4-point favorite, winning about 78 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
UMBC offense vs Marist defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Marist D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #26966.5 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #645.6 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #3519.5 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #8328.3 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #25437.6 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #1999.0 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #3846.3 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #2947.1 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #228.6 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #26936.8 |
Marist offense vs UMBC defense
| Marist O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#269 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 49.3#278 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 16.9#193 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 29.1#232 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 25.7#360 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 8.3#77 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 58.9#44 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 49.8#261 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 32.2#271 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 78.1#15 | FT% | — |
| 34.6#283 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
Marist
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Merrimack211 | L 57–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Quinnipiac249 | W 77–75 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Saint Peter's298 | L 56–63 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | H | Sacred Heart310 | W 65–63 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | A | Manhattan331 | W 84–70 |
