Model line
Mount St. Mary's −2.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Mount St. Mary's 59%
Projected tempo
69.0
possessions
Site
Mount St. Mary's home
41%Win probability59%
The model makes Mount St. Mary's a 2.2-point favorite, winning about 59 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Mount St. Mary's defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Mount St. Mary's D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #21567.7 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #2347.2 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #26615.3 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #11429.1 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #24737.3 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #2009.0 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #19852.9 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #1646.2 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #7932.3 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #3344.9 |
Mount St. Mary's offense vs Merrimack defense
| Mount St. Mary's O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#215 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 50.6#208 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 22.4#364 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 32.3#112 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 33.3#231 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 8.5#102 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 55.2#109 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 51.8#175 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 32.7#246 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 67.4#335 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#123 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Mount St. Mary's
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Siena271 | L 58–63 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Fairfield231 | W 69–47 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | A | Sacred Heart310 | L 69–77 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | H | Canisius339 | W 68–47 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Niagara318 | W 76–63 |
