Model line
St. Thomas −7.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
St. Thomas 80%
Projected tempo
72.2
possessions
Site
St. Thomas home
20%Win probability80%
The model makes St. Thomas a 7.9-point favorite, winning about 80 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas St. offense vs St. Thomas defense
| Arkansas St. O | Stat | St. Thomas D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.5#15 | Tempo | #10769.7 |
| 51.7#161 | eFG% | #13850.7 |
| 19.8#343 | TOV% | #15717.0 |
| 38.2#7 | ORB% | #2726.6 |
| 39.1#79 | FT rate | #8130.7 |
| 10.2#251 | Block% | #2937.5 |
| 55.8#94 | Assist% | #20052.9 |
| 53.6#99 | 2P% | #23052.8 |
| 32.9#235 | 3P% | #5431.7 |
| 73.3#157 | FT% | — |
| 44.9#69 | 3PA rate | #12441.1 |
St. Thomas offense vs Arkansas St. defense
| St. Thomas O | Stat | Arkansas St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#107 | Tempo | #1572.5 |
| 58.9#5 | eFG% | #11550.3 |
| 14.3#34 | TOV% | #29214.9 |
| 22.6#353 | ORB% | #3727.0 |
| 33.8#220 | FT rate | #23537.0 |
| 8.3#84 | Block% | #2967.3 |
| 56.7#74 | Assist% | #15351.4 |
| 63.0#1 | 2P% | #12750.8 |
| 36.0#60 | 3P% | #10932.9 |
| 68.7#305 | FT% | — |
| 46.3#41 | 3PA rate | #20738.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas St.
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Georgia Southern307 | L 77–80 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana215 | W 81–58 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Southern Miss236 | W 89–84 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 102–94 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | A | Louisiana215 | W 79–62 |
St. Thomas
| Tue, Mar 17 | A | Seattle115 | L 52–67 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | North Dakota328 | L 66–67 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | South Dakota St.237 | W 80–67 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska Omaha280 | W 68–53 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | North Dakota St.170 | W 84–62 |
