Model line
Dayton −2.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 58%
Projected tempo
69.1
possessions
Site
Neutral
58%Win probability42%
The model makes Dayton a 2.0-point favorite, winning about 58 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Dayton offense vs Northwestern defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Northwestern D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #32265.3 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #16151.0 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #12217.5 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #33134.7 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #17234.8 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #10910.6 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #36063.8 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #17451.6 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #14433.4 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #15840.2 |
Northwestern offense vs Dayton defense
| Northwestern O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#322 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 51.7#164 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 13.0#7 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 28.1#263 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 33.9#213 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 6.4#9 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 65.8#5 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 52.9#133 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 33.0#230 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 75.1#77 | FT% | — |
| 34.0#295 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
Northwestern
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Purdue29 | L 68–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Indiana37 | W 74–61 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Penn St.90 | W 76–66 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Minnesota63 | L 66–67 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Purdue29 | L 66–70 |
