Model line
Iowa −32.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Iowa >99%
Projected tempo
68.9
possessions
Site
Iowa home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Iowa a 32.8-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
UMBC offense vs Iowa defense
| UMBC O | Stat | Iowa D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#273 | Tempo | #36363.1 |
| 54.1#68 | eFG% | #24552.6 |
| 14.0#24 | TOV% | #1520.6 |
| 24.9#342 | ORB% | #6928.1 |
| 34.1#206 | FT rate | #27838.6 |
| 6.4#11 | Block% | #3256.6 |
| 44.8#336 | Assist% | #14851.1 |
| 54.1#84 | 2P% | #26853.8 |
| 36.1#57 | 3P% | #16533.7 |
| 76.0#53 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#194 | 3PA rate | #18539.4 |
Iowa offense vs UMBC defense
| Iowa O | Stat | UMBC D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.1#363 | Tempo | #27366.5 |
| 56.3#20 | eFG% | #8149.4 |
| 15.2#81 | TOV% | #28615.1 |
| 30.6#177 | ORB% | #1825.8 |
| 35.3#171 | FT rate | #1225.7 |
| 8.3#73 | Block% | #3286.5 |
| 57.4#65 | Assist% | #1143.0 |
| 58.5#16 | 2P% | #8849.6 |
| 35.5#91 | 3P% | #10432.7 |
| 77.0#34 | FT% | — |
| 41.9#135 | 3PA rate | #24637.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
UMBC
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Howard164 | L 83–86 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Vermont189 | W 74–59 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | H | UMass Lowell306 | W 91–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | New Hampshire342 | W 84–69 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | NJIT336 | W 91–52 |
Iowa
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Illinois7 | L 59–71 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Nebraska19 | W 77–71 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Florida2 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Clemson44 | W 67–61 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Ohio St.26 | L 69–72 |
