Model line
Connecticut −3.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Connecticut 64%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Neutral
64%Win probability36%
The model makes Connecticut a 3.4-point favorite, winning about 64 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Michigan defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Michigan offense vs Connecticut defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
