Model line
Connecticut −9.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Connecticut 85%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Connecticut home
15%Win probability85%
The model makes Connecticut a 9.7-point favorite, winning about 85 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
St. John's offense vs Connecticut defense
| St. John's O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.7#67 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 51.1#191 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 14.6#47 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 35.9#29 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 41.8#34 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 9.5#191 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 57.9#58 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 51.8#177 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 33.3#212 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 72.6#182 | FT% | — |
| 34.2#290 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Connecticut offense vs St. John's defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | St. John's D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #6770.7 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #2447.2 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #4819.1 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #15129.8 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #9731.5 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #4212.4 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #4746.9 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #3647.4 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #3831.1 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #34133.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
St. John's
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Duke1 | L 75–80 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Kansas8 | W 67–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Northern Iowa129 | W 79–53 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Connecticut3 | W 72–52 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | H | Seton Hall69 | W 78–68 |
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
