Model line
Providence −7.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Providence 78%
Projected tempo
71.3
possessions
Site
Providence home
22%Win probability78%
The model makes Providence a 7.2-point favorite, winning about 78 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Villanova offense vs Providence defense
| Villanova O | Stat | Providence D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#276 | Tempo | #2172.3 |
| 53.8#76 | eFG% | #17851.4 |
| 15.0#67 | TOV% | #35313.1 |
| 32.2#119 | ORB% | #19430.8 |
| 30.9#284 | FT rate | #12732.7 |
| 7.3#23 | Block% | #1629.6 |
| 56.8#73 | Assist% | #24554.7 |
| 54.0#87 | 2P% | #11750.4 |
| 35.7#78 | 3P% | #26635.3 |
| 68.9#303 | FT% | — |
| 45.7#54 | 3PA rate | #21538.5 |
Providence offense vs Villanova defense
| Providence O | Stat | Villanova D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.3#21 | Tempo | #27666.5 |
| 55.0#41 | eFG% | #18151.4 |
| 16.7#178 | TOV% | #6918.6 |
| 31.7#137 | ORB% | #25031.8 |
| 36.7#139 | FT rate | #5930.0 |
| 8.6#115 | Block% | #3475.9 |
| 47.5#294 | Assist% | #23354.2 |
| 55.3#52 | 2P% | #21152.2 |
| 36.4#44 | 3P% | #14933.4 |
| 75.7#61 | FT% | — |
| 40.5#159 | 3PA rate | #27036.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Villanova
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Notre Dame72 | L 72–74 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Utah St.56 | L 76–86 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Georgetown65 | L 64–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Xavier45 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | DePaul62 | W 76–57 |
Providence
| Thu, Mar 12 | A | St. John's25 | L 72–85 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Butler95 | W 91–81 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Georgetown65 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Marquette31 | L 56–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Creighton36 | W 79–76 |
