Model line
Villanova −2.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Villanova 60%
Projected tempo
69.1
possessions
Site
Villanova home
40%Win probability60%
The model makes Villanova a 2.3-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Villanova defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Villanova D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #27666.5 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #18151.4 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #6918.6 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #25031.8 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #5930.0 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #3475.9 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #23354.2 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #21152.2 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #14933.4 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #27036.8 |
Villanova offense vs Connecticut defense
| Villanova O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#276 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 53.8#76 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 15.0#67 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 32.2#119 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 30.9#284 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 7.3#23 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 56.8#73 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 54.0#87 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 35.7#78 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 68.9#303 | FT% | — |
| 45.7#54 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Villanova
| Sun, Nov 1 | N | Notre Dame72 | L 72–74 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Utah St.56 | L 76–86 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Georgetown65 | L 64–78 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Xavier45 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | DePaul62 | W 76–57 |
