Model line
Providence −2.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Providence 60%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Providence home
40%Win probability60%
The model makes Providence a 2.5-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Providence defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Providence D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #2172.3 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #17851.4 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #35313.1 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #19430.8 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #12732.7 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #1629.6 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #24554.7 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #11750.4 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #26635.3 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #21538.5 |
Providence offense vs Connecticut defense
| Providence O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.3#21 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 55.0#41 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 16.7#178 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 31.7#137 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 36.7#139 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 8.6#115 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 47.5#294 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 55.3#52 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 36.4#44 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 75.7#61 | FT% | — |
| 40.5#159 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Providence
| Thu, Mar 12 | A | St. John's25 | L 72–85 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Butler95 | W 91–81 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Georgetown65 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Marquette31 | L 56–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Creighton36 | W 79–76 |
