Model line
Connecticut −14.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Connecticut 94%
Projected tempo
70.6
possessions
Site
Connecticut home
6%Win probability94%
The model makes Connecticut a 14.4-point favorite, winning about 94 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Xavier offense vs Connecticut defense
| Xavier O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2#46 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 51.8#160 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 13.9#21 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 26.5#310 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 28.1#341 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 10.2#259 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 62.2#16 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 49.8#264 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 36.5#41 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 72.9#176 | FT% | — |
| 40.6#154 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Connecticut offense vs Xavier defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Xavier D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #4671.2 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #30254.1 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #25615.5 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #13629.5 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #12232.6 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #12610.3 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #35963.3 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #31555.3 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #23834.8 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #26536.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Xavier
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Connecticut3 | L 68–93 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Marquette31 | W 89–87 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Villanova47 | L 78–91 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Seton Hall69 | L 68–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Georgetown65 | W 91–84 |
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
