Model line
Providence −6.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Providence 77%
Projected tempo
72.9
possessions
Site
Providence home
24%Win probability77%
The model makes Providence a 6.9-point favorite, winning about 77 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Xavier offense vs Providence defense
| Xavier O | Stat | Providence D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2#46 | Tempo | #2172.3 |
| 51.8#160 | eFG% | #17851.4 |
| 13.9#21 | TOV% | #35313.1 |
| 26.5#310 | ORB% | #19430.8 |
| 28.1#341 | FT rate | #12732.7 |
| 10.2#259 | Block% | #1629.6 |
| 62.2#16 | Assist% | #24554.7 |
| 49.8#264 | 2P% | #11750.4 |
| 36.5#41 | 3P% | #26635.3 |
| 72.9#176 | FT% | — |
| 40.6#154 | 3PA rate | #21538.5 |
Providence offense vs Xavier defense
| Providence O | Stat | Xavier D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.3#21 | Tempo | #4671.2 |
| 55.0#41 | eFG% | #30254.1 |
| 16.7#178 | TOV% | #25615.5 |
| 31.7#137 | ORB% | #13629.5 |
| 36.7#139 | FT rate | #12232.6 |
| 8.6#115 | Block% | #12610.3 |
| 47.5#294 | Assist% | #35963.3 |
| 55.3#52 | 2P% | #31555.3 |
| 36.4#44 | 3P% | #23834.8 |
| 75.7#61 | FT% | — |
| 40.5#159 | 3PA rate | #26536.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Xavier
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Connecticut3 | L 68–93 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Marquette31 | W 89–87 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Villanova47 | L 78–91 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Seton Hall69 | L 68–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Georgetown65 | W 91–84 |
Providence
| Thu, Mar 12 | A | St. John's25 | L 72–85 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Butler95 | W 91–81 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Georgetown65 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Marquette31 | L 56–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Creighton36 | W 79–76 |
