Model line
Connecticut −3.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Connecticut 66%
Projected tempo
69.6
possessions
Site
Butler home
66%Win probability35%
The model makes Connecticut a 3.8-point favorite, winning about 66 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Butler defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Butler D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #9370.0 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #20451.9 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #27415.1 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #15630.0 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #624.9 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #2598.0 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #21753.7 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #24253.1 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #13733.3 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #24837.5 |
Butler offense vs Connecticut defense
| Butler O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0#93 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 50.9#197 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 15.9#127 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 34.6#56 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 42.1#28 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 11.9#337 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 57.2#68 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 51.9#170 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 32.7#243 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 71.9#209 | FT% | — |
| 34.9#275 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Butler
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Providence43 | L 81–91 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | DePaul62 | W 81–71 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Creighton36 | L 59–76 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Villanova47 | L 73–82 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Xavier45 | W 80–75 |
