Model line
Providence −4.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Providence 68%
Projected tempo
72.5
possessions
Site
Providence home
32%Win probability68%
The model makes Providence a 4.3-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
St. John's offense vs Providence defense
| St. John's O | Stat | Providence D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.7#67 | Tempo | #2172.3 |
| 51.1#191 | eFG% | #17851.4 |
| 14.6#47 | TOV% | #35313.1 |
| 35.9#29 | ORB% | #19430.8 |
| 41.8#34 | FT rate | #12732.7 |
| 9.5#191 | Block% | #1629.6 |
| 57.9#58 | Assist% | #24554.7 |
| 51.8#177 | 2P% | #11750.4 |
| 33.3#212 | 3P% | #26635.3 |
| 72.6#182 | FT% | — |
| 34.2#290 | 3PA rate | #21538.5 |
Providence offense vs St. John's defense
| Providence O | Stat | St. John's D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.3#21 | Tempo | #6770.7 |
| 55.0#41 | eFG% | #2447.2 |
| 16.7#178 | TOV% | #4819.1 |
| 31.7#137 | ORB% | #15129.8 |
| 36.7#139 | FT rate | #9731.5 |
| 8.6#115 | Block% | #4212.4 |
| 47.5#294 | Assist% | #4746.9 |
| 55.3#52 | 2P% | #3647.4 |
| 36.4#44 | 3P% | #3831.1 |
| 75.7#61 | FT% | — |
| 40.5#159 | 3PA rate | #34133.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
St. John's
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Duke1 | L 75–80 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Kansas8 | W 67–65 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Northern Iowa129 | W 79–53 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | H | Connecticut3 | W 72–52 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | H | Seton Hall69 | W 78–68 |
Providence
| Thu, Mar 12 | A | St. John's25 | L 72–85 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Butler95 | W 91–81 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Georgetown65 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Marquette31 | L 56–78 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Creighton36 | W 79–76 |
