Model line
Connecticut −0.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Connecticut 53%
Projected tempo
68.8
possessions
Site
Neutral
53%Win probability47%
The model makes Connecticut a 0.8-point favorite, winning about 53 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Connecticut offense vs Virginia defense
| Connecticut O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0#294 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 55.3#33 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 16.7#174 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 36.1#24 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 29.9#313 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 9.6#196 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 65.1#7 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 57.4#26 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 34.7#134 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 71.6#217 | FT% | — |
| 40.3#163 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Connecticut defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Connecticut D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #29466.0 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #845.9 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #9618.0 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #8028.3 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #30840.6 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #915.0 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #8549.0 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #1345.9 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #2030.5 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #27336.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Connecticut
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Michigan24 | L 63–69 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Illinois7 | W 71–62 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Duke1 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | UCLA18 | W 73–57 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
