Model line
Virginia −9.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 84%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Virginia home
16%Win probability84%
The model makes Virginia a 9.5-point favorite, winning about 84 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Kentucky offense vs Virginia defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Kentucky defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
