Model line
Virginia −3.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 66%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Neutral
66%Win probability34%
The model makes Virginia a 3.9-point favorite, winning about 66 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs Xavier defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Xavier D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #4671.2 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #30254.1 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #25615.5 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #13629.5 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #12232.6 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #12610.3 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #35963.3 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #31555.3 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #23834.8 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #26536.9 |
Xavier offense vs Virginia defense
| Xavier O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2#46 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 51.8#160 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 13.9#21 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 26.5#310 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 28.1#341 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 10.2#259 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 62.2#16 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 49.8#264 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 36.5#41 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 72.9#176 | FT% | — |
| 40.6#154 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
Xavier
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Connecticut3 | L 68–93 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Marquette31 | W 89–87 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Villanova47 | L 78–91 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Seton Hall69 | L 68–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Georgetown65 | W 91–84 |
