Model line
Virginia −3.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 63%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
Neutral
63%Win probability37%
The model makes Virginia a 3.0-point favorite, winning about 63 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs Marquette defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Marquette D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #9170.1 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #13650.6 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #3919.3 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #33034.7 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #10432.0 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #2398.4 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #33660.2 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #16551.5 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #9932.7 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #18139.5 |
Marquette offense vs Virginia defense
| Marquette O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.1#91 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 50.5#214 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 16.0#140 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 29.7#217 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 32.8#240 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 10.0#238 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 58.1#54 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 52.7#141 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 31.7#294 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 67.5#333 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#131 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
Marquette
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Xavier45 | L 87–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Connecticut3 | W 68–62 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Providence43 | W 78–56 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | DePaul62 | L 51–62 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | Georgetown65 | W 76–60 |
