Model line
Virginia −37.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia >99%
Projected tempo
69.7
possessions
Site
Virginia home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Virginia a 37.3-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Bucknell offense vs Virginia defense
| Bucknell O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.9#248 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 48.5#302 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 19.0#320 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 27.0#294 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 29.8#315 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 11.5#326 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 54.0#138 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 50.4#243 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 30.6#329 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 76.8#36 | FT% | — |
| 42.7#122 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Bucknell defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Bucknell D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #24866.9 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #32054.7 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #10217.9 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #21431.3 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #18635.3 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #3455.9 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #35261.8 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #28054.1 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #34437.0 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #2445.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Bucknell
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Navy290 | L 69–74 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Army346 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Lehigh265 | L 79–89 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Army346 | W 75–73 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | H | Holy Cross353 | L 63–72 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
