Model line
Virginia −1.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 57%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Neutral
43%Win probability57%
The model makes Virginia a 1.8-point favorite, winning about 57 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas offense vs Virginia defense
| Arkansas O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.7#13 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 56.5#17 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 12.2#1 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 32.1#120 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 35.8#160 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 6.4#8 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 53.4#154 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 55.8#44 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 38.7#9 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 75.0#79 | FT% | — |
| 32.9#316 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Arkansas defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #1372.7 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #17751.4 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #24415.6 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #19831.0 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #6630.3 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #2313.1 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #10549.8 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #27654.0 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #4731.5 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #21038.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arizona5 | L 88–109 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | High Point61 | W 94–88 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Hawaii132 | W 97–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Vanderbilt21 | W 86–75 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Ole Miss49 | W 93–90 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
