Model line
Merrimack −0.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Merrimack 52%
Projected tempo
68.1
possessions
Site
Canisius home
52%Win probability48%
The model makes Merrimack a 0.5-point favorite, winning about 52 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Canisius defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Canisius D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #34964.3 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #22452.2 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #22316.0 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #14729.8 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #18335.2 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #2258.5 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #29356.5 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #28554.3 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #11833.0 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #4544.0 |
Canisius offense vs Merrimack defense
| Canisius O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.3#349 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 46.3#348 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 19.6#340 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 29.3#224 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 31.4#270 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 9.7#206 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 55.4#103 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 44.0#359 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 33.3#207 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 71.9#210 | FT% | — |
| 39.5#181 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Canisius
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Quinnipiac249 | L 63–67 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Merrimack211 | W 67–62 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | A | Mount St. Mary's299 | L 47–68 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | A | Rider355 | W 72–66 |
| Sun, Feb 15 | H | Manhattan331 | L 65–69 |
