Model line
Yale −5.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Yale 72%
Projected tempo
68.5
possessions
Site
Yale home
29%Win probability72%
The model makes Yale a 5.4-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Harvard offense vs Yale defense
| Harvard O | Stat | Yale D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9#357 | Tempo | #31565.6 |
| 53.2#93 | eFG% | #19951.7 |
| 17.4#227 | TOV% | #20616.3 |
| 26.8#303 | ORB% | #14629.7 |
| 25.7#359 | FT rate | #2026.8 |
| 7.4#24 | Block% | #1499.9 |
| 56.1#87 | Assist% | #19352.7 |
| 54.0#85 | 2P% | #13550.9 |
| 34.7#137 | 3P% | #24835.0 |
| 80.8#1 | FT% | — |
| 40.2#166 | 3PA rate | #3145.0 |
Yale offense vs Harvard defense
| Yale O | Stat | Harvard D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.6#315 | Tempo | #35763.9 |
| 55.6#29 | eFG% | #12150.4 |
| 14.0#25 | TOV% | #13817.1 |
| 34.2#62 | ORB% | #7328.2 |
| 35.1#177 | FT rate | #1726.6 |
| 9.1#156 | Block% | #9610.8 |
| 56.0#91 | Assist% | #16351.7 |
| 53.6#106 | 2P% | #15951.4 |
| 39.4#4 | 3P% | #9232.6 |
| 74.6#101 | FT% | — |
| 36.1#249 | 3PA rate | #21138.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Harvard
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Penn123 | L 60–62 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Columbia202 | W 81–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Penn123 | L 61–64 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | A | Princeton155 | W 58–56 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Cornell196 | W 73–54 |
Yale
| Tue, Mar 17 | H | UNC Wilmington107 | L 67–68 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Penn123 | L 84–88 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Cornell196 | W 88–76 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Princeton155 | W 78–53 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Columbia202 | W 60–54 |
