Model line
Troy −8.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Troy 82%
Projected tempo
72.4
possessions
Site
Troy home
18%Win probability82%
The model makes Troy a 8.8-point favorite, winning about 82 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Cal St. Northridge offense vs Troy defense
| Cal St. Northridge O | Stat | Troy D |
|---|---|---|
| 75.3#3 | Tempo | #25366.8 |
| 51.3#181 | eFG% | #11350.2 |
| 17.5#234 | TOV% | #17516.7 |
| 31.9#127 | ORB% | #24331.7 |
| 34.2#201 | FT rate | #9531.4 |
| 10.1#244 | Block% | #2039.0 |
| 56.6#75 | Assist% | #11450.0 |
| 52.6#144 | 2P% | #19652.0 |
| 32.4#258 | 3P% | #5231.6 |
| 66.8#344 | FT% | — |
| 33.6#307 | 3PA rate | #19439.1 |
Troy offense vs Cal St. Northridge defense
| Troy O | Stat | Cal St. Northridge D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.8#253 | Tempo | #375.3 |
| 51.5#173 | eFG% | #19051.6 |
| 17.3#224 | TOV% | #19116.4 |
| 34.6#58 | ORB% | #2626.6 |
| 36.2#145 | FT rate | #16034.3 |
| 10.9#296 | Block% | #2098.7 |
| 57.5#64 | Assist% | #31257.9 |
| 53.2#125 | 2P% | #17551.7 |
| 33.0#232 | 3P% | #20934.4 |
| 74.2#122 | FT% | — |
| 45.9#49 | 3PA rate | #748.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Cal St. Northridge
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UC Irvine109 | L 78–93 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | UC San Diego102 | W 80–70 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Cal St. Fullerton213 | L 77–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Cal St. Bakersfield286 | W 86–84 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | UC Riverside223 | L 84–95 |
Troy
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Nebraska19 | L 47–76 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Georgia Southern307 | W 77–61 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Southern Miss236 | W 78–70 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 80–65 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Louisiana215 | W 78–59 |
