Model line
Wagner −3.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Wagner 65%
Projected tempo
69.2
possessions
Site
Wagner home
36%Win probability65%
The model makes Wagner a 3.5-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Mercyhurst offense vs Wagner defense
| Mercyhurst O | Stat | Wagner D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.5#342 | Tempo | #32465.3 |
| 49.5#265 | eFG% | #12450.4 |
| 14.3#31 | TOV% | #30014.9 |
| 26.4#312 | ORB% | #14229.6 |
| 25.6#361 | FT rate | #31040.8 |
| 6.3#7 | Block% | #3296.5 |
| 54.2#135 | Assist% | #22954.1 |
| 50.0#253 | 2P% | #9749.9 |
| 32.1#276 | 3P% | #20534.3 |
| 74.1#126 | FT% | — |
| 31.1#338 | 3PA rate | #29835.8 |
Wagner offense vs Mercyhurst defense
| Wagner O | Stat | Mercyhurst D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#324 | Tempo | #34264.5 |
| 49.6#262 | eFG% | #10350.1 |
| 18.5#301 | TOV% | #6418.7 |
| 32.8#95 | ORB% | #15429.9 |
| 32.3#254 | FT rate | #33342.6 |
| 10.4#270 | Block% | #9011.0 |
| 48.9#269 | Assist% | #18052.5 |
| 46.6#339 | 2P% | #13851.0 |
| 36.6#38 | 3P% | #7732.3 |
| 72.6#185 | FT% | — |
| 36.1#247 | 3PA rate | #33933.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Mercyhurst
| Tue, Mar 10 | A | LIU262 | L 70–79 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stonehill350 | W 56–51 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson345 | W 70–61 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Stonehill350 | W 75–72 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | A | Central Connecticut334 | L 78–80 |
Wagner
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | LIU262 | L 56–64 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Central Connecticut334 | W 70–60 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Chicago St.347 | W 80–61 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | New Haven351 | W 65–62 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | St. Francis PA | W 65–56 |
