Model line
Valparaiso −19.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Valparaiso 98%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Valparaiso home
2%Win probability98%
The model makes Valparaiso a 19.1-point favorite, winning about 98 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Chicago St. offense vs Valparaiso defense
| Chicago St. O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8#302 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 45.3#358 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 15.6#110 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 28.3#252 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 30.0#310 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 8.7#120 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 50.3#234 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 44.0#360 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 32.1#274 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 75.0#80 | FT% | — |
| 30.9#341 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Valparaiso offense vs Chicago St. defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | Chicago St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #30265.8 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #35456.7 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #2020.1 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #33935.0 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #26038.0 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #3574.9 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #36572.7 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #36460.0 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #28835.6 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #350.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Chicago St.
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | LIU262 | L 75–79 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Wagner338 | L 61–80 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | A | LIU262 | L 56–73 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Central Connecticut334 | W 70–51 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson345 | L 59–60 |
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
