Model line
NC State −20.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
NC State 98%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
NC State home
2%Win probability98%
The model makes NC State a 20.1-point favorite, winning about 98 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Troy offense vs NC State defense
| Troy O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.8#253 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 51.5#173 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 17.3#224 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 34.6#58 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 36.2#145 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 10.9#296 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 57.5#64 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 53.2#125 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 33.0#232 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 74.2#122 | FT% | — |
| 45.9#49 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
NC State offense vs Troy defense
| NC State O | Stat | Troy D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #25366.8 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #11350.2 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #17516.7 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #24331.7 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #9531.4 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #2039.0 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #11450.0 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #19652.0 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #5231.6 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #19439.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Troy
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Nebraska19 | L 47–76 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Georgia Southern307 | W 77–61 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Southern Miss236 | W 78–70 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 80–65 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Louisiana215 | W 78–59 |
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
