Model line
Kentucky −5.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Kentucky 71%
Projected tempo
71.8
possessions
Site
Kentucky home
29%Win probability71%
The model makes Kentucky a 5.3-point favorite, winning about 71 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Kentucky defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Kentucky D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #10269.7 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #5848.8 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #23615.7 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #16430.1 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #22036.3 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #2912.8 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #25955.2 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #7949.5 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #5531.8 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #16839.7 |
Kentucky offense vs Louisville defense
| Kentucky O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#102 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 53.3#90 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.0#62 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 33.5#78 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 37.4#118 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 8.6#111 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 57.0#72 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 54.6#68 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 34.2#161 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 72.7#177 | FT% | — |
| 39.3#185 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Kentucky
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Iowa St.6 | L 63–82 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Santa Clara86 | W 89–84 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida2 | L 63–71 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Missouri34 | W 78–72 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | LSU55 | W 87–82 |
