Model line
Louisville −1.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 57%
Projected tempo
71.7
possessions
Site
Neutral
57%Win probability43%
The model makes Louisville a 1.8-point favorite, winning about 57 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Michigan defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Michigan offense vs Louisville defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
