Model line
Louisville −3.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 64%
Projected tempo
72.5
possessions
Site
Memphis home
64%Win probability36%
The model makes Louisville a 3.4-point favorite, winning about 64 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Memphis defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Memphis D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #3571.4 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #5448.7 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #7318.5 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #35035.6 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #32942.4 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #3212.7 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #24454.7 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #13751.0 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #2330.5 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #6343.2 |
Memphis offense vs Louisville defense
| Memphis O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4#35 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 48.7#296 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 18.9#318 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 35.3#41 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 34.7#191 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 10.4#267 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 49.8#245 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 49.4#274 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 31.6#301 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 72.1#205 | FT% | — |
| 33.7#303 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Memphis
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Tulane153 | L 69–81 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Tulane153 | W 96–95 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | South Florida92 | L 89–96 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | East Carolina185 | L 68–84 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | Wichita St.80 | L 82–88 |
