Model line
Louisville −37.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville >99%
Projected tempo
70.7
possessions
Site
Louisville home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Louisville a 37.5-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Morehead St. offense vs Louisville defense
| Morehead St. O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.8#251 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 49.2#283 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 18.0#271 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 35.8#33 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 37.7#110 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.2#158 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 47.4#296 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 49.7#266 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 32.0#280 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 74.1#127 | FT% | — |
| 30.5#349 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs Morehead St. defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Morehead St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #25166.8 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #11150.2 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #26115.4 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #35135.8 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #20135.6 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #2448.3 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #24754.8 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #6749.1 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #21734.5 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #20239.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Morehead St.
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Tennessee St.204 | L 67–93 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Southeast Missouri266 | W 66–61 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | A | Little Rock219 | W 76–70 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Southern Indiana324 | W 64–63 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Western Illinois363 | W 81–59 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
