Model line
Louisville −34.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville >99%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Louisville home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Louisville a 34.6-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Chattanooga offense vs Louisville defense
| Chattanooga O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6#218 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 54.2#60 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 14.4#37 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 21.8#357 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 29.7#317 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 7.7#37 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 55.6#97 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 55.8#45 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 35.0#112 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 77.4#26 | FT% | — |
| 49.2#18 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs Chattanooga defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Chattanooga D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #21867.6 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #19451.7 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #35013.2 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #23931.7 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #33242.6 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #2817.6 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #20853.3 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #19952.1 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #19534.2 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #4144.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Chattanooga
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | The Citadel325 | L 85–88 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | VMI344 | W 86–79 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | UNC Greensboro289 | L 80–85 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | The Citadel325 | W 93–72 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | A | Mercer227 | W 94–90 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
