Model line
Virginia −13.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 92%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Virginia home
8%Win probability92%
The model makes Virginia a 13.2-point favorite, winning about 92 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
NC State offense vs Virginia defense
| NC State O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs NC State defense
| Virginia O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
