Model line
NC State −2.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
NC State 60%
Projected tempo
71.6
possessions
Site
NC State home
40%Win probability60%
The model makes NC State a 2.4-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs NC State defense
| Louisville O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
NC State offense vs Louisville defense
| NC State O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
