Model line
Duke −11.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 89%
Projected tempo
69.3
possessions
Site
Duke home
11%Win probability89%
The model makes Duke a 11.5-point favorite, winning about 89 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Virginia offense vs Duke defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs Virginia defense
| Duke O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
