Model line
Duke −20.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Duke 98%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Duke home
2%Win probability98%
The model makes Duke a 20.1-point favorite, winning about 98 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
NC State offense vs Duke defense
| NC State O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#115 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 55.0#40 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 13.1#10 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 28.2#258 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 35.1#174 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 9.4#177 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 54.6#123 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 52.6#146 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 38.8#8 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 76.8#37 | FT% | — |
| 43.4#104 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Duke offense vs NC State defense
| Duke O | Stat | NC State D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #11569.5 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #25452.7 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #9118.2 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #18230.5 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #23236.9 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #10210.7 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #9649.3 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #20952.2 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #28135.5 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #3444.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
NC State
| Tue, Mar 17 | N | Texas10 | L 66–68 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Virginia14 | L 74–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Pittsburgh79 | W 98–88 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Stanford81 | L 84–85 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | H | Duke1 | L 64–93 |
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
