Model line
Virginia −15.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Virginia 95%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Virginia home
5%Win probability95%
The model makes Virginia a 15.4-point favorite, winning about 95 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Florida St. offense vs Virginia defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | Virginia D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #27766.5 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #545.5 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #25515.5 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #10329.0 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #12132.6 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #217.5 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #11850.1 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #644.6 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #4331.3 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #24437.9 |
Virginia offense vs Florida St. defense
| Virginia O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#277 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 54.9#45 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 16.1#149 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 37.9#10 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 32.9#237 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 9.7#215 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 58.7#47 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 55.2#54 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 36.3#48 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 73.1#167 | FT% | — |
| 46.5#40 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
Virginia
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Tennessee11 | L 72–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Wright St.150 | W 82–73 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Duke1 | L 70–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Miami FL13 | W 84–62 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | NC State54 | W 81–74 |
