Model line
Louisville −2.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 60%
Projected tempo
70.7
possessions
Site
Louisville home
40%Win probability60%
The model makes Louisville a 2.5-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Duke offense vs Louisville defense
| Duke O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#243 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 56.6#14 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.9#128 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 38.3#5 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 37.9#104 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 9.3#161 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 59.0#42 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 60.3#6 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 34.6#141 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 73.2#162 | FT% | — |
| 44.3#82 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Louisville offense vs Duke defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Duke D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #24367.0 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #945.9 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #11217.7 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #824.9 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #223.0 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #12110.3 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #16251.7 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #1446.0 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #2130.5 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #2945.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Duke
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Connecticut3 | L 72–73 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | St. John's25 | W 80–75 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | TCU50 | W 81–58 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Siena271 | W 71–65 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Virginia14 | W 74–70 |
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
