Model line
North Carolina −4.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
North Carolina 70%
Projected tempo
70.8
possessions
Site
North Carolina home
30%Win probability70%
The model makes North Carolina a 4.9-point favorite, winning about 70 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Miami FL offense vs North Carolina defense
| Miami FL O | Stat | North Carolina D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3#129 | Tempo | #15968.8 |
| 55.5#30 | eFG% | #4548.3 |
| 16.1#145 | TOV% | #34513.6 |
| 37.1#16 | ORB% | #6327.8 |
| 37.8#107 | FT rate | #323.8 |
| 10.3#261 | Block% | #2308.5 |
| 54.2#136 | Assist% | #6247.8 |
| 56.8#35 | 2P% | #1746.2 |
| 35.1#109 | 3P% | #23034.7 |
| 68.1#322 | FT% | — |
| 31.9#330 | 3PA rate | #26137.0 |
North Carolina offense vs Miami FL defense
| North Carolina O | Stat | Miami FL D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.8#159 | Tempo | #12969.3 |
| 54.3#57 | eFG% | #18651.5 |
| 13.9#20 | TOV% | #9018.2 |
| 31.2#158 | ORB% | #2026.1 |
| 37.1#126 | FT rate | #4629.1 |
| 9.1#152 | Block% | #1459.9 |
| 57.2#69 | Assist% | #25254.9 |
| 56.5#38 | 2P% | #11250.3 |
| 34.2#164 | 3P% | #27435.4 |
| 68.2#320 | FT% | — |
| 42.2#132 | 3PA rate | #12341.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Miami FL
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Purdue29 | L 69–79 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Missouri34 | W 80–66 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Virginia14 | L 62–84 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Louisville15 | W 78–73 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Louisville15 | L 89–92 |
North Carolina
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | VCU53 | L 78–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Clemson44 | L 79–80 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duke1 | L 61–76 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Clemson44 | W 67–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Virginia Tech48 | W 89–82 |
