Model line
Florida St. −1.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Florida St. 54%
Projected tempo
72.4
possessions
Site
Florida St. home
46%Win probability54%
The model makes Florida St. a 1.0-point favorite, winning about 54 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Florida St. defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Florida St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #2771.8 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #22752.2 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #5119.0 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #31934.1 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #12332.7 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #6211.6 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #27155.7 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #22052.5 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #22334.6 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #3244.9 |
Florida St. offense vs Louisville defense
| Florida St. O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.8#27 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 52.3#132 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 15.2#80 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 30.8#171 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 34.7#190 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 12.8#353 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 52.5#179 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 55.1#55 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 33.1#222 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 71.3#230 | FT% | — |
| 50.6#13 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Florida St.
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Duke1 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | California94 | W 95–89 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | SMU59 | W 91–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Pittsburgh79 | W 75–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Georgia Tech110 | W 80–71 |
